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Rules-based disorder: why prediction markets struggle if reality is contested

The platforms let their users bet on world events. But when outcomes are ambiguous, who gets to decide what happened?

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Beware of new prime ministers bearing gifts

Andy Burnham avoids telling Britain hard truths

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For bucks’ sake: the rise of self-made billionaires

Also on the daily podcast: Cambodia’s scam crackdown and Larry the Cat

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Narendra Modi’s party discovers the limits of propaganda

India’s biggest protest in years has produced shocking videos and angry young people

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Should you be afraid of Elon Musk?

Artificial intelligence is charging ahead. Not even its creators know how to keep up

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Elon Musk’s vision of the future

The world’s richest man sits down with The Economist

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Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega scraps elections

The Central American country may become a one-party state

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Prediction markets need better rules

Their capricious settlement mechanisms are putting off serious investors

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A brief history of Luddism

States ultimately decide how fast technology is adopted